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Recent Developments:

Key Highlights:

• According to the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA), India's power system is likely to experience greater stress from the developing El Niño than that of any other country.
• The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has confirmed the emergence of El Niño conditions over the equatorial Pacific Ocean, with further strengthening expected during the Southwest Monsoon season.
• The IMD has forecast below-normal Southwest Monsoon rainfall at 90% of the Long Period Average (LPA), with a 60% probability of a deficient monsoon season.
• Weaker hydropower generation, reduced wind output and rising cooling demand are expected to widen the gap between electricity demand and supply during 2026–27.

El Niño:

Meaning and Characteristics:

• El Niño, meaning "Little Boy" in Spanish, is a recurring ocean-atmosphere climate phenomenon characterised by abnormal warming of Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean.
• During El Niño, the normally strong Trade Winds weaken, allowing warm surface waters to move eastward towards the western coast of the Americas.
• The weakening of Trade Winds suppresses the upwelling of cold, nutrient-rich water along the Pacific coast, disrupting global atmospheric circulation.
• El Niño is one phase of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), while La Niña represents the opposite cooling phase and ENSO-neutral indicates neither phase is dominant.

Impact of El Niño on India:

Monsoon and Climate:

• El Niño generally weakens the Southwest Monsoon, increasing the probability of below-normal rainfall over India.
• Deficient rainfall reduces reservoir levels, lowers hydroelectric generation and affects agricultural productivity.
• Higher temperatures during El Niño increase electricity demand due to greater use of cooling appliances.
• The phenomenon also increases the likelihood of heat waves, droughts and forest fires across several regions.

Power Sector Impact:

• CREA estimates that India could face an electricity generation deficit of nearly 18 TWh during the one-year period ending June 2027.
• Reduced wind and hydropower generation, coupled with rising electricity demand, may widen the supply-demand gap.
• The shortfall is expected to be largely met through coal-fired thermal power plants, increasing fossil fuel dependence.
• Additional coal-based generation may emit nearly 17 million tonnes of Carbon Dioxide (CO₂), slowing India's decarbonisation efforts.

India's Electricity Sector:

Current Status:

• During 2025, India's total electricity generation increased by about 1%.
• Coal-based electricity generation declined by about 4%, while renewable electricity generation increased by nearly 22%.
• As of March 2026, India's installed non-fossil fuel capacity reached 283.46 GW, including:
• Solar Power: 150.26 GW
• Wind Power: 56.09 GW
• Large Hydropower: 51.41 GW
• Nuclear Power: 8.78 GW
• India added 44.6 GW of solar capacity and 6 GW of wind capacity during 2025–26.
• Coal continues to remain the single largest source of installed electricity capacity, accounting for nearly 42% of the total capacity.

Emerging Challenges:

• Despite rapid renewable expansion, limited grid flexibility resulted in curtailment of nearly 2.1 TWh of solar and wind electricity to maintain grid stability.
• Greater climate variability is making electricity demand increasingly weather-sensitive rather than only generation-sensitive.
• Peak electricity demand is expected to rise significantly because of increasing urbanisation, industrialisation and widespread use of cooling appliances.

Role of Solar Energy During El Niño:

Strategic Importance:

• Unlike hydropower and wind energy, solar power generation is expected to remain relatively stable during El Niño conditions.
• Stable solar generation strengthens the role of solar energy in enhancing India's energy security.
• However, greater solar deployment must be complemented with adequate energy storage and grid balancing infrastructure.

Energy Storage Systems:

Meaning:

• Energy Storage Systems (ESS) store surplus electricity generated during periods of high renewable energy production and supply it when electricity demand exceeds generation.
• Energy storage improves grid reliability, enhances renewable integration and reduces dependence on fossil fuel-based peaking power plants.

Major Types:

• Pumped Hydro Storage (PHS): Surplus electricity pumps water to an elevated reservoir, and stored water later generates electricity through turbines during peak demand.
• Battery Energy Storage Systems (BESS): Batteries chemically store electricity and discharge it whenever required.
• Lithium-ion Batteries, particularly Lithium Iron Phosphate (LFP) batteries, currently dominate grid-scale storage because of high efficiency, declining costs and long operational life.
• Concentrated Solar Thermal Storage stores heat, generally in molten salt, for electricity generation after sunset.
• Compressed Air Energy Storage (CAES) stores compressed air in underground caverns or storage tanks for later electricity generation.
• Flywheel Energy Storage stores electrical energy in the form of high-speed rotational energy.
• Gravity Energy Storage stores energy by lifting heavy masses and generates electricity when they descend.

India's Energy Storage Capacity:

Present Status and Targets:

• India presently focuses primarily on Battery Energy Storage Systems (BESS) and Pumped Hydro Storage (PHS).
• Current installed Battery Energy Storage System capacity is about 0.27 GW.
• Installed Pumped Hydro Storage capacity is about 7.2 GW.
• According to the Central Electricity Authority (CEA), India aims to achieve 174 GW / 888 GWh of total energy storage capacity by 2035–36, comprising:
• Battery Energy Storage Systems: 80 GW / 321 GWh
• Pumped Hydro Storage: 94 GW / 567 GWh.

Government Initiatives:

Policy Measures:

• The National Electricity Plan (Transmission) emphasises expansion of transmission infrastructure to integrate large-scale renewable energy.
• The National Green Hydrogen Mission complements renewable expansion by creating additional demand for clean electricity.
• The Viability Gap Funding (VGF) Scheme for Battery Energy Storage Systems supports deployment of grid-scale battery storage to improve renewable integration.
• The Green Energy Corridor Programme strengthens interstate and intrastate transmission networks for renewable energy evacuation.

Way Forward:

Priority Measures:

• Climate variability should be integrated into long-term electricity demand forecasting and power system planning.
• India should accelerate deployment of Battery Energy Storage Systems, Pumped Hydro Storage and flexible grid infrastructure.
• Modernisation of transmission networks and adoption of smart grids can improve renewable energy integration.
• Greater investment in demand-side management, energy-efficient cooling technologies and distributed renewable energy can reduce peak demand stress.
• Diversification of renewable energy sources alongside advanced forecasting systems will strengthen the resilience of India's electricity sector.

Value Addition for UPSC:

Important Facts:

• ENSO is the most influential source of year-to-year global climate variability.
• El Niño generally weakens the Indian Southwest Monsoon, whereas La Niña often strengthens monsoon rainfall, though exceptions may occur.
• Long Period Average (LPA) is the average rainfall calculated over a standard 30-year period by the India Meteorological Department.
• 1 TWh (Terawatt-hour) equals 1 billion kilowatt-hours (kWh) of electricity.
• Grid Flexibility refers to the ability of an electricity system to balance supply and demand despite fluctuations in renewable energy generation.
• Battery Energy Storage Systems provide rapid response for frequency regulation, peak-load management and renewable energy integration, whereas Pumped Hydro Storage remains the most mature and largest-capacity electricity storage technology globally