India’s fossil-based CO2 emissions to spike

Context:

The latest study on India’s fossil-based CO2 emissions presents a concerning outlook for 2024, with emissions expected to spike by 4.6%. This increase is part of a broader global trend, which, if continued, may result in a 50% chance that global average temperatures will exceed 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels within the next six years — a key threshold set by the Paris Agreement to avoid the most catastrophic impacts of climate change.

Key Findings of the Study

1India’s CO2 Emissions:

oIndia’s fossil-based CO2 emissions are projected to rise by 4.6% in 2024, contributing to global emissions growth.

oIn 2023, India accounted for 8% of global fossil CO2 emissions, making it the third-largest emitter after China (31%) and the USA (13%).

2Global Emissions Outlook:

oGlobal fossil CO2 emissions are on track to reach a record high of 37.4 billion tonnes this year.

oThe combined contributions of China, the USA, India, and the European Union accounted for 59% of global emissions in 2023, highlighting the dominant role these regions play in the climate crisis.

3Temperature Threshold:

oThe study warns that, at the current rate of emissions, there is a 50% chance that global temperatures will consistently exceed 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels within about six years — potentially as early as this year. Crossing this threshold is considered a significant milestone in terms of climate tipping points, beyond which the impacts of climate change are expected to become increasingly severe.

4The Carbon Budget:

oThe carbon budget refers to the amount of CO2 emissions that can be released into the atmosphere while still limiting global warming to a given level, such as the 1.5°C target outlined in the Paris Agreement.

oBased on current emission trajectories, the world is rapidly depleting its carbon budget, with global emissions continuing to rise, especially in major economies like India.

5Land Use and Carbon Sinks:

oGlobal emissions from land-use changes (such as deforestation) have decreased by 20% over the past decade. However, deforestation remains a significant concern for the carbon balance.

oReforestation efforts and the growth of new forests are helping to offset about half of the emissions from permanent deforestation globally.

oMeanwhile, land and ocean CO2 sinks — natural systems that absorb CO2, such as forests and oceans — still absorb roughly half of global CO2 emissions. However, these sinks are being increasingly impacted by climate change, which could reduce their effectiveness over time.

Global Carbon Project (GCP)

The study draws from data compiled by the Global Carbon Project (GCP), which was established in 2001 with the aim of tracking global carbon emissions and carbon sinks. The GCP plays a crucial role in assessing progress towards the Paris Agreement targets, particularly in measuring the carbon budgets for key greenhouse gases such as CO2, methane, and nitrous oxide.

Implications for India and Global Climate Goals

• India’s rising emissions pose a significant challenge to global climate goals, particularly the 1.5°C target. While India has made strides in renewable energy adoption, its growing energy demand, population size, and reliance on coal for power generation continue to push its carbon footprint higher.
• The 4.6% projected increase in emissions in 2024 underscores the urgent need for stronger climate action in India, including accelerating the transition to renewable energy, improving energy efficiency, and addressing emissions from key sectors like transportation and industrial production.
• Global emissions remain on an upward trajectory, and the study highlights the critical need for collective action across all major emitters, especially from countries like China, the USA, and India, to avoid crossing the 1.5°C threshold.

The study reinforces the urgency of meeting the Paris Agreement targets and taking immediate, comprehensive action to reduce global CO2 emissions. For India, this means scaling up efforts in clean energy, energy efficiency, and climate adaptation, while also addressing emissions from sectors like transportation and industry. Globally, there is an increasing recognition that fossil fuel emissions must peak and decline rapidly to avoid the worst impacts of climate change. The clock is ticking, and the path ahead will require unprecedented levels of international cooperation and commitment to climate action.