Understanding India’s relationship with Turkiye and Azerbaijan

Context

• Following Turkiye and Azerbaijan’s support for Pakistan after India’s military confrontation in the wake of the Pahalgam massacre, many online travel platforms reported a sharp spike in cancellations of tour bookings to these countries.

• Many Indian tour operators withdrew offers and promotional packages for trips to Turkiye and Azerbaijan. On social media, calls to “boycott” both countries gained traction. Institutions such as IIT Bombay, IIT Roorkee, and Jawaharlal Nehru University suspended MoUs with some Turkish universities.

• Data show that the relationship between Pakistan and Turkiye has been strengthened by arms trade. The two countries have also shown reciprocal support during past geopolitical standoffs. For instance, Turkiye has backed Pakistan on the Kashmir issue, while Pakistan has supported Turkiye in disputes related to Cyprus.

• Similarly, in 2020, it was with Turkish backing that Azerbaijan captured much of the Armenian-populated enclave from Armenia.

• Data from the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) shows that Turkiye has been exporting arms to Pakistan since the 1990s.

• India has supplied weapons to Armenia . Most of these exports comprise surface-to-air missile systems and a few multiple rocket launchers. In contrast, SIPRI data shows no official arms transactions between India and Azerbaijan, or India and Turkiye.

• Last week, some Indian trader associations passed resolutions to boycott all forms of trade and commercial engagement with Turkiye and Azerbaijan. However, data suggests that even if this escalates into an official trade ban, India stands to lose little.

• Crude oil is the primary import from both countries, but their combined share in India’s total crude imports has remained below 1% over the past six years.

• In contrast, Azerbaijan could face a greater impact, as India was its third largest destination for crude oil as of 2023.

• Another major import from Turkiye is machinery and mechanical appliances, including nuclear reactors, boilers, and related parts. But even in this category, Turkiye accounts for only about 1% of India’s total imports

Mapping