A China - led trilateral nexus as India’s new challenge

Context

• Last week, China, Pakistan and Bangladesh held their first trilateral meeting in Kunming, China. The discussions focused on furthering cooperation and exploring the possibilities of deeper engagement.

• This meeting closely follows another trilateral meeting between China, Pakistan, and Afghanistan, held in May, with the aim of extending the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor and increasing cooperation.

• These trilaterals, led by China, come at a time of Pakistan’s little relevance to the region, India’s increasing relations with Afghanistan, and New Delhi’s deteriorating ties with Bangladesh.

• The use of trilaterals underscores China’s fresh attempts at making Pakistan a stakeholder in the region and keeping New Delhi preoccupied with immediate concerns.

• The 1962 war between India and China has largely shaped regional alignments and geopolitics. Following the war, China found Pakistan to be an ally that could keep India engaged with immediate threats and limit it from challenging Beijing’s interests, security, and status.

• On the other hand, Pakistan deemed China to be a country that would unquestionably offer economic and military assistance to support its aggression against India.

• To date, Pakistan is highly dependent on China for assistance, investments and infrastructure development. In fact, by the end of 2024, Pakistan had a loan of over $29 billion from China.

• It is estimated that over 80% of Pakistan’s arms imports are from China. In addition, China has also shielded Pakistan-backed terrorists at the United Nations Security Council and other multilateral platforms.

• India’s pragmatic engagement and domestic politics of the region have slowed down China’s momentum in South Asia.

• In the Maldives, Beijing appears reluctant to trust President Mohamed Muizzu and the country’s economy, despite his initial anti-India rhetoric. Mr. Muizzu has now turned to India to keep the country’s economy afloat.

• In Nepal, despite signing the framework for Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) cooperation, major differences in funding remain unresolved and the progress of projects has been slow.

• In Sri Lanka, President Anura Kumara Dissanayake is developing close ties with India by respecting its redlines.

• In the case of Bangladesh, despite differences, India has not hindered the trilateral energy cooperation with Nepal.

• The developments in the region demonstrate, once again, that China, and not Pakistan, is India’s biggest challenge.

• With both Pakistan and China confronting a confident India, China sees an opportunity to challenge India through the trilateral nexus.

• At a time when India is seeking support from South Asian countries to fight terrorism, Chinese efforts will create new setbacks.

• South Asian countries will thus have to learn to balance between India and China, as Beijing uses Islamabad to create new complexities in the region.

• On its part, Delhi will have to continue to express redlines and convey the point that any misadventures by its neighbours could have severe economic, military, and political costs