Southwest Monsoon

Article Title: Southwest Monsoon

01-10-2023

Geography of India Current Affairs Analysis

Despite the driest August in a century, India has dodged a drought this year, thanks to unexpectedly heavy rainfall in September.

Official the last date of Southwest Monsoon : September 30.

SW Monsoon in 2023:

94% of the expected rain from June to September

“Normal” rainfall

Southern India : 8% deficit

central India got close to its expected quota

eastern parts of India posted an 18% deficit

Temporal Variations:

June : 9% Deficit

July : 13% Surplus

August : 36% deficit

September : 13% surplus

July and August contribute 60% of the total monsoon rainfall of 89 cm

Excess rain in September were due to favourable conditions in the Indian Ocean

A positive Indian Ocean Dipole helped counteract the El Nino effect.

Historically, El Nino means weak rainfall in September.

Criteria for“Normal” :

Rainfall which reaches 96% to 104% of the long-term average is considered ‘normal’

North East Monsoon:

Period: October to December

Expected Date this Year: October 20.

Forecast:

Normal for whole ofIndia

Normal to above-normal rainfall’ over large parts of north-west India and the southern peninsula.

NE Monsoon Forecast for Tamilnadu:

Normal to Above Normal

88% to 112% of the long period average, which is 33.4 cm

Tamil Nadu’s average rainfall during the northeast monsoon is 44 cm

Factors Influencing Monsoon rainfall over Indian region:

The combination of global weather phenomena

El Nino

Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD)

Sea surface temperature variability in the Indian and the Pacific Oceans

Easterly waves

Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO)

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