Context: Recent analysis shows a "drastic" shift in the behavior of cyclonic disturbances over the North Indian Ocean (NIO) over the last century.
- The Four Major Trends:
- Inverted U-Shape: Frequency of storms peaked in the mid-20th century, declined, and is now rebounding—but with higher intensity.
- Westward Shift: While the Bay of Bengal (BoB) historically had 4x more storms than the Arabian Sea, the BoB is seeing a decline while the Arabian Sea is seeing an increase in frequency and severity.
- Intensity: Fewer disturbances are forming, but a higher percentage are intensifying into Severe or Super Cyclonic Storms due to rapid ocean warming (climate change).
- Seasonality: Storms are shifting from the monsoon (July–Sept) to the post-monsoon (Oct–Dec) window.
- Impact: This requires a massive shift in disaster preparedness for India's West Coast (Mumbai, Gujarat), which historically faced fewer cyclones than the East Coast.
- Subject Reference:
- GS Paper I: Geography (Important Geophysical phenomena - Cyclones).
- GS Paper III: Disaster Management and Climate Change.
IAS-2026 - OPTIONAL / GEOGRAPHY / PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION / SOCIOLOGY / ANTHROPOLOGY / ORIENTATION ON 03 & 04-10-2025 
